Risk

Life is always life-threatening, the German author Erich Kästner already stated. This is another reason why risk assessment is so important. Since we humans have learned to think linearly, many people find it difficult to imagine an exponential spread of a virus. Exponential developments can be explained by the famous anecdote about a chessboard and rice grains or by the example of a football stadium into which twice as much water drips every two seconds – first one drop, then two, four, eight and so on. How long does it take to fill the stadium? – Not even ten minutes. Not enough time to prepare calmly for a virus epidemic.

 

Since I became aware of the threatening situation of the corona virus, I have had similar feelings as after the attacks of September 11, 2001, which I experienced at that time in Washington. However, when I compare this and other crises in history with the current one, I notice four main peculiarities:

 

1. In the past, there were natural disasters, accidents or terrorist attacks that mankind had to deal with ex post. In the Corona crisis, however, we are heading for a catastrophe first slowly, then more quickly and almost inevitably, as if we knew ex ante that some planes would crash in a foreseeable period of time, but we do not know the exact times, nor how many planes are involved and how many people lose their lives in the process. Another picture may perhaps illustrate this even more: I currently feel as if space scientists have told us that an asteroid is hurtling towards Earth, but we do not know whether or not we are on the side of our planet where the meteorite hits.​

2. In this cosmic drama, unlike in the past, people must also practice physical distancing. Contrary to our instincts and needs, we can practice the closeness that is so important especially in times of crisis or during mourning work exclusively in virtual form. Our lives will shift even more to the internet. This will accelerate digitization. The online business will explode. Companies are increasingly switching to home offices. Educational institutions, such as schools and universities, will shift their teaching and knowledge transfer to the internet even more than before. Churches will have to find ways to provide “digital” access to God. The upcoming Easter will be a first touchstone - not only in Rome, the capital of the country that is currently suffering most from this pandemic. The next tragedy is expected in the USA. We look with great concern to our second home, which is not as well prepared for the challenges with its health and social system as Germany, not to mention its political leadership. It is an irony of history that, after the last US presidential election was partly influenced by questionable methods on the internet, this year's election will probably be largely determined by an invisible virus. I would not be surprised if, over the next few months, China were to offer the US its help in dealing with the Corona crisis. This picture would also reflect the shift in power from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere.​

3. Regardless of the helplessness felt by many people, it is especially important in this crisis that each individual contributes through his or her behavior to limiting the negative effects and personal suffering as much as possible. We have to counter our own perceived loss of control through very personal crisis management. Routines such as morning meditations with classical music and life-philosophical texts, sports activities as well as playing the piano and tea ceremonies in the afternoon are as much a part of this for Andrea and me as regular conversations and discussions via the internet with our children, other family members and friends. All this should help us to deal with these challenges, but also make clear where and how we can make a contribution for our neighbors and the community.​

4. There seems to be a trade-off between the number of human victims and the maintenance of economic life. In concrete terms, this means that if the primacy of minimizing fatalities applies to political decision-makers, they must limit human mobility and thus economic activity to a minimum. However, if politicians try to avoid an economic collapse with the corresponding negative financial consequences, it would make sense to shorten the duration of the crisis, which would probably mean a high blood toll. In addition, they must keep an eye on the burden on the health system, but also on the social and financial system. Balancing these sometimes conflicting goals requires a high degree of statesmanship.

 

Through and in the Corona crisis we are reminded of old wisdom, but also come to one or the other new insight. In doing so, the statement of Martin Luther King, Jr. will again come true: "The ultimate measure of a person is not where they stand in moments of comfort and convenience, but where they stand at times of challenge and controversy.” The term quarantine was derived from the Latin number 40, quadraginta. The custom of forty days of seclusion can be traced back to the 3rd book of Moses in the Old Testament. It will probably take longer to overcome the Corona crisis.